According to an article in the premier edition of “Architect” magazine, Professor Arthur C. Nelson believes that America is in for an unprecedented construction boom over the next 24 years.
Nelson, a professor at Virginia Tech, wrote a report in 2004 entitled “Toward a New Metropolis: The Opportunity to Rebuild America" that was published by the Brookings Institute. The report looked at what the built environment would be in the year 2030, and concluded that “about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop will have been built after 2000” and that “most of the space built between 2000 and 2030 will be residential space.”
Nelson used as sources for his report the US Census Bureau, the US Department of Labor, the US Department of Energy, the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors, the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, and The Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Nelson’s conclusions are based upon his belief that there will be 82 million new residents in the United States by the year 2030 to help fill 60 million new jobs that will be created. 34 million homes will have to be constructed and another 23 million homes will have to be replaced during that time.
Commercial real estate will see a similar increase. According to Nelson’s report, there will be 28 billion square feet of new construction, and 54 billion square feet of buildings that will be replaced.
The total amount of construction predicted is about $30 trillion nationwide. The largest portion of the construction will be in the south (about $13 trillion). This region encompasses an area including Texas and Oklahoma east to the Atlantic. The west will see the next largest amount, about $8 trillion, with the midwest and northeast comprising a little less than a third of new construction combined, about $9 trillion.
Nelson believes that the growth in construction he predicts The first factor is the dramatic change in society’s expectations in their homes. While in the 1950’s about half of the homes in America contained children, he believes that by 2030 only about one quarter of American homes will have children. He believes that by then, 85 percent of the demand for new homes will be from households with no children, drastically changing the way suburbs will be designed.
The second factor will be energy prices and traffic congestion. These will cause many people to want to live in areas where they do not have to travel great distances to get to work.
The third factor will be that people are living longer and having children later in life. He predicts that older parents who are accustomed to urban lifestyles won’t want to give them up for suburban homes where the best schools are. He believes that they will want to stay in the same area, and will want communities with its own shopping, restaurants and workplaces.
Predictions that the internet and telecommunications would change the way we live have not come true, according to his report. It states that after a decade of the internet, the internet comprises only 3 percent of all sales, and that after a generation, the number of telecommuters has not changed at all. He believes that people who do live that lifestyle eventually get “cabin fever” and need to get out among the human population to have social needs met.
Much of the redevelopment activity that will take place will be in the nation’s 1.1 million acres of shopping centers, malls, office complexes and business parks, primarily because they are the easiest land parcels to develop. That is because they are usually large parcels that are already under one ownership, already have infrastructure such as water and sewer, are located near major streets or highways, and are already part of a community.
We in Oklahoma are well-positioned to benefit from the coming growth, if it happens as Nelson believes it will. He predicts that 56 percent of all of the growth between now and 2030 is going to happen in the south.
What the article did not explain was how Nelson accounts for China and India’s impact on the American economy. I am also concerned that much of the growth in population might be fueled by illegal immigration and that we, as a nation, might be doing what Europe and much of the rest of the world is already doing – having fewer children.
In spite of that, it is an optimistic report that, if that much construction really does take place, will benefit us all.